SPC Meso Discussion
Posted by cypresstx on 7/3/2014, 11:44 am
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1260.html



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1031 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

  AREAS AFFECTED...NC

  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

  VALID 031531Z - 031800Z

  PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

  SUMMARY...CENTER OF STRENGTHENING HRCN ARTHUR WILL MOVE OVER THE
  CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CHANCE
  FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND/OR
  TORNADOES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE FEAR TO
  CAPE LOOKOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

  DISCUSSION...EYE OF HRCN ARTHUR WAS LESS THAN 100NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
  OF MYR/CRE SC BASED ON 15Z NHC FIX. LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
  SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NERN SC AND CAPE FEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
  HOURS. STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES WITHIN THIS LEADING BAND HAVE
  EXHIBITED LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND SPARSE LIGHTNING...POSSIBLY DUE TO
  BEING REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HRCN
  CIRCULATION. A SECOND OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND WAS CURRENTLY
  APPROACHING CAPE FEAR FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 30-35KT WITH SOME OF
  THE STRONGER CELLS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE EXHIBITING
  LIGHTNING...OCCASIONAL WEAK ROTATION...AND EVEN LINEAR/BOWING
  STRUCTURES. LATEST KLTX VWP DEPICTS 35-50KT DEEP-LAYER SELY FLOW IN
  THE 1-5KM LAYER RESULTING IN GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE
  SR-HELICITY FOR STORMS TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 25-30KT.

  CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTM WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS
  APPROACHING SEVERE...AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN
  VIA CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. WITH TIME... STRENGTHENING SR-HELICITY
  WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
  INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
  THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF
  THE HRCN. THUS...WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY POSES SOME CHANCE FOR STRONG
  TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
  ELEMENTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS OF THE HRCN WILL LIKELY POSE AN
  INCREASING THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL
  SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR TO CAPE
  LOOKOUT.

  ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


  ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

  LAT...LON   33927784 33977805 34247807 34577789 34757771 35077719
              35117678 35067642 34977627 34707638 34677656 34647685
              34607707 34547737 34327764 33927784
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11AM July 3rd - now forecasting cat 2 by landfall - cypresstx, 7/3/2014, 11:05 am
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