Model comparison; Shear forecast
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/29/2014, 9:35 pm
A huge difference in appearance between last night and today with it. While model runs don't mean too much yet given the poor present organization, here is a comparison of the last model run to the
current model run in terms of averaging all the models together. Day 8 and 9 are averaged among only some of the GFS ensemble members. Each dot represents 24 hours. The last dot under the consensus
line is day 9.





This is an independent calculation that doesn't mean much long term at the moment given the organization, but it does show near term at least, more of a west shift continues among all the averaged models
that the NHC publicly releases. More and more of a threat to more of the islands.

Images are screenshots from the HC model system, which has the experimental consensus line feature that my site will still not have until next year:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

Model forecast wind speeds:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
Given it is so weak right now, these may not mean much. Most don't show a hurricane through five days.

SHIPS intensity output for 0Z on July 29th for shear forecast and various other things:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14073000AL9314_ships.txt
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Shear may remain a bit high through sometime tomorrow.

Snippet:

                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *      INVEST  AL932014  07/30/14  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    31    33    35    39    47    57    62    66    67    69    70    70
V (KT) LAND       30    31    33    35    39    47    57    62    66    67    69    70    70
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    31    32    34    39    45    53    60    64    66    66    65

SHEAR (KT)        19    17    18    17    10    12     3    12     9    14    21    19    17
167
In this thread:
2am on July 29th: Invest 93L - 70% chance through 48 hrs; 80% through 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 7/29/2014, 1:56 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.