Re: 80% chance now at 8pm on July 31st
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/31/2014, 9:28 pm
Now that it is approaching land, with recon to backup the winds (45 mph now as of 8pm EDT on 31st), they will not need too much convection to stick around to make an upgrade. They might even put out watches and warnings before they make the upgrade. I think it was a depression a few days ago, but it was in the middle of nowhere. If it looked like it did a few days ago, we would have Bertha now given proximity to land.

At least conditions are not that great and its continues gaining latitude.

Non updating image of models as of August 1st 0Z:



Consensus of all models the NHC releases publicly, other than the simple extrapolation model (XTRP):



Only GFS ensemble members available for day 8 and 9 consensus points. (last and second to last dot)

Shear forecast for 0Z on August 1st:

                   *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                   * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                   *      INVEST  AL932014  08/01/14  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    40    40    40    39    40    42    43    46    48    52    57    60
V (KT) LAND       40    40    40    40    39    40    42    35    38    40    45    50    52
V (KT) LGE mod    40    40    40    41    41    42    43    37    40    44    51    59    67
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13    16    16    14    16    13     9    13     7     3    10     9    19

Rest of file above for specific run: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14080100AL9314_ships.txt
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
118
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Invest 93L has tropical storm force winds, but no convection - Chris in Tampa, 7/31/2014, 4:51 pm
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