| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/024120.shtml?5day?large#contents Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14E/14E_floater.html HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed much during the past several hours. There has been no evidence of an eye in either geostationary or recent microwave images, however the central dense overcast remains fairly symmetric with cloud tops colder than -80C. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain unchanged and the initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt. The hurricane has likely peaked in intensity and some slight weakening is predicted during the next 24 hours while the large circulation interacts with land and begins to ingest some drier and more stable air from the west. After that time, Norbert is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. This should lead to a faster rate of weakening and Norbert is predicted to become a remnant low in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM models during the first day or so, and in good agreement with the intensity consensus thereafter. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Norbert is moving north- northwestward or 330/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. The model guidance has once again shifted eastward during the first 48 hours, which has required another eastward adjustment to the NHC track. Although none of the guidance models show the center of Norbert crossing the coast of the Baja peninsula, the eastward shift means that the core of the hurricane is likely to pass closer to portions of the Pacific coast of Baja. Only a slight deviation to the right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds to the coast. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula. As noted in the previous discussion, large spread remains in the track guidance after 72 hours, and the NHC track lies near the multi-model consensus at days 4 and 5. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AS NORBERT MOVES CLOSER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 111.1W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |