| On the NHC front page, see "Tropical Weather Discussion". Updated Daily at 2:05AM, 8:05AM, 2:05PM and 8:05PM EDT. See surface analysis too on that page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif The tropical wave is apparently well east. (although that was a 2am EDT, 6Z, surface analysis as of posting this.) See bold sections below. "TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N22W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N23W TO 07N23W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAINLY N OF THE LOW FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 23W-27W...COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N47W TO 09N47W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR AFFECTING ITS NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG 49W...BETWEEN 10N-16N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS OVER E PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 12N67W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS WAVE...WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE COASTAL WATERS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 21N75W TO 12N76W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING NEAR THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CUBA. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE REGION IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEARBY THE WAVE AXIS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAIN W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 19N...74W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO 12N91W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N AND EXTENDING TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N23W TO 07N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 12N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 06N...BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO MAINLY W OF 97W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W ARE SUPPORTING THE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THUS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS NEAR THIS WAVE THEREFORE NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO IT. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. NO MAJOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. THE FIRST IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE AREA TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 17N...BETWEEN 66W-69W. THE LATTER CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CUBA ALONG 20N...BETWEEN 76W-83W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS BEING GENERATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WITH CENTER NEAR 11N75W AND AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 21N83W. THIS DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE GENERATION OF NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 16N WEST OF 79W. TRADES OF 15 KT ABOUNDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SW BASIN...EXTENDING TO THE NW THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AFTER A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTEND TO THE SW N ATLC. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF 75W. THERE IS AN UPPER- LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N83W IS KEEPING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 28N41W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG 28N...BETWEEN 35W-56W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA" More NHC marine stuff: NHC Marine Forecasts & Analyses: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ Shear: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time= Out of the three to four storms the GFS tries to develop in the past few runs in the long range, the only one nearby is the one that seems to develop from around that area. But that is long range. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ |