| HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 Odile has continue to rapidly strengthen overnight with the eye becoming more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. Recent microwave imagery shows a well-defined eye, and a long convection band that appears to be beginning of a concentric eyewall. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 115 kt, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is around 105 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt. Odile is the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the advent of satellite imagery. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward a little faster than before, with an initial motion of 330 degrees at 13 kt. Odile should turn northwestward today as it is steered around the western portion of a strengthening ridge over the southern United States. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 2 to 3 days of the forecast period and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track is very close to the previous advisory through 72 hours. Later in the period, the GFS and ECMWF show the cyclone continuing northwestward at a slower forward speed, while some of the models indicate a more north-northwestward or northward motion at days 4 and 5. The NHC track leans toward the ECMWF and GFS solutions late in the forecast period. Warm water and low shear during the next 12 hours should allow for some additional strengthening, but the rate of intensification is expected to slow later today. In addition during the next day or so, an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some fluctuations in intensity. By Monday, the hurricane will be moving over cooler water and weakening should begin. Rapid weakening is likely in a couple of days as Odile moves over even colder waters and into a more stable airmass as well as potential land interactions. The updated NHC forecast shows a higher peak intensity due to the higher initial intensity. After 24 hours, the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and a little below the intensity consensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.1N 107.3W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.7N 108.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 110.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 24.3N 112.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 25.6N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 27.3N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 28.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |