03B.HUDHUD expected to be a cat 3.
Posted by hanna on 10/8/2014, 11:34 am
03B.HUDHUD  WTIO31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 90.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 90.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 13.8N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.5N 88.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.3N 87.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.0N 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.2N 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.7N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 20.9N 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 90.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 081018Z SSMIS 91GHZ REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGHLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 03B TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 96 AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// NNNN |
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