90L: Up to 50% development within 48 hours; Still 60% through 5 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/11/2014, 9:07 pm
Hurricane hunters will investigate Sunday if needed. And it definitely looks better organized:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html
You can see the water vapor loop there. Dry air is having some impact, but it is still holding its own. I think if it were a developed system it would have more of a problem with it getting into the core and causing issues.



"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located south of Bermuda.

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
area located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have
become better organized during the past several hours.  Although
dry air may hamper development, the overall environment is
expected to be generally conducive, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or so.  The low is forecast to
move westward at around 10 mph, and interests from the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas
should monitor its progress. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Sunday
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, areas of heavy
rains and gusty winds are expected to move across the Leeward
Islands starting early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms, located
several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable, and significant development of this
system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake"



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



The good thing for most land areas at the moment, most models curve it:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=90&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

(Although on that track of course it could eventually impact Bermuda.)

It's still early of course with something that is not yet developed. The models are also bullish on development:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=90&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

They often are with undeveloped systems, but with it becoming better organized, a low shear forecast for much of the next five days and warm water, other than some dry air nearby it seems like this could be our next hurricane. (Although Fay could actually become a hurricane briefly)

Shear forecast at 8pm on Saturday (0Z Sunday):
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14101200AL9014_ships.txt
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
96
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Invest 90L - 700 miles east of Barbados; And more - Chris in Tampa, 10/10/2014, 9:36 am
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