Re: Gonzalo
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/16/2014, 11:07 pm
Unfortunately, at this point there is no way the storm doesn't have a significant impact on Bermuda. It's only how significant an impact it will be. It is heading straight for the island. There is a chance it could even pass east of the island, but at the moment it looks to be headed for a direct hit, whether the exact center of the eye literally goes over the island or just to the west of the island giving it the worst winds in the front right quadrant. Given how it is tracking it is not going to veer far enough away from Bermuda and the storm is at a state where it is not going to fall apart.
At this point, Bermuda will not miss getting sustained hurricane force winds. The storm will not move far enough away and/or weaken that much.
The NHC forecast is for 120mph winds when it is over Bermuda, with gusts to 150mph. For "the windward sides of hilly terrain" the gusts could be 195mph or greater.
Some excerpts from the 11pm advisories and discussion...
"However, any weakening is probably too late to spare
Bermuda, with almost all of the guidance showing the system as a
major hurricane as it moves nearby."
"Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo."
"...GONZALO MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD BERMUDA... ...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ON FRIDAY... "
"SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA."
"WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER."
"STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES."
"Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo." |
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