Update: Super Typhoon HAGUPIT
Posted by hanna on 12/5/2014, 11:21 am
HAGUPIT

Bad news PAGASA is still down, for some reason this dose not feel right.

II got on JTWC I am not sure how current the sates are.



JMA's sate


Rubies track re JTWC


JMA's track.


WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 019    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  051200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 128.5E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.5E
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  060000Z --- 12.3N 127.2E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  061200Z --- 12.6N 126.1E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  070000Z --- 12.9N 125.0E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
   ---
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  48 HRS, VALID AT:
  071200Z --- 13.3N 124.0E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
   ---
  72 HRS, VALID AT:
  081200Z --- 14.0N 121.7E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
   ---
  LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   ---
  96 HRS, VALID AT:
  091200Z --- 14.4N 119.3E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
   ---
  120 HRS, VALID AT:
  101200Z --- 14.4N 116.8E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 128.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z,
060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

Good news her pressure is going up!!!

Y 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 15:40 UTC, 5 December 2014

Analyses at 05/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N12°00'(12.0°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N500km(270NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/03 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 06/15 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°55'(11.9°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°35'(12.6°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)



Rubies eye is almost non existent  in this image.

184
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Super Typhoon HAGUPIT / Ruby, winds reached 150 kts / 172.617 mph... - hanna, 12/4/2014, 2:22 pm
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