President of the United States takes part in NHC discussion on newly formed Andres in E. Pacific
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/28/2015, 11:36 am
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015
Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures
colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become
better organized with an increase in banding and a developing
central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and
TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt
tropical storm.
The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the
south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from
south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.
This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the
next several days, and should cause Andres to move
west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance
spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking
Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble
maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains
near the multi-model consensus for now.
Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for
steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%
chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The
updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone
will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce
weakening by the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ |
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President of the United States takes part in NHC discussion on newly formed Andres in E. Pacific - Chris in Tampa, 5/28/2015, 11:36 am Post A Reply
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