Re: For Jim and Others.. Which Model Came CLOSEST To calling this?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/21/2015, 6:47 pm
Here is the model error:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=04&display=modelerror&type=table&run=latest&errortype=average&interval=24&hour=120&positionunit=nm&intensityunit=kts&showcases=&heatmap=1&hidezerohour=&showbearing=&trend=&showtrendtext=&zerohrwithin=10&intopt=

Where you can see some of those models you mention that had error of around 8 knots at 120 hours. (5 days)

SHIPS (SHIP on that chart) did have low position error too, comparatively. It's just that most of the models were way off long term.

Graphically:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=04&display=modelerror&type=chart&errortype=average&latestrun=1

(intensity on a lot of models is misleading on that chart as the GFS ensemble members are not going to get it right)
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For Jim and Others.. Which Model Came CLOSEST To calling this? - BobbiStorm, 8/21/2015, 3:15 pm
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