Re: Patricia has made landfall
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/23/2015, 8:25 pm
I really don't think it was either.

Here is that HDOB:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=ep&year=2015&product=hdob&storm=Patricia&mission=04&agency=NOAA&ob=10-23-203030-35-902.6-142-131

It was weakening significantly at that point. I think it was no higher than 150 mph at 4:30pm EDT.
The NHC advisory came very shortly after the data was available, so they didn't have a lot of time.

10 second flight level winds in SE eyewall:

1:34:30pm EDT: 191 knots (219.8 mph) ... Pressure was about 879mb
4:31:30pm EDT: 144 knots (165.7 mph) ... Pressure was about 903mb (NHC went with 900mb)

A three hour drop of 47 knots, about 55 mph.

Comparing SFMR data over that period it went from 166 knots (191.0 mph) to 131 knots (150.8 mph).

For 7:15pm EDT, landfall, the 10 second flight level winds were probably a lot lower. The surface winds were probably lower too, though likely not as much.

Satellite at 4:30pm EDT:



Satellite at 7:00pm EDT, 15 minutes before landfall:



While the NOAA aircraft did not sample the entire storm, the SE quadrant had been where the
high winds were often found and comparing like to like for just that mission, there was that big
drop over three hours.



This would be a circumstance where hopefully people realize they did not go through the
strongest hurricane they could ever go through.
285
In this thread:
Patricia has made landfall - Chris in Tampa, 10/23/2015, 7:30 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.