Tropical Storm watch issued for southern portion of Baja Califnornia
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/26/2015, 4:42 pm
HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
Sandra's satellite presentation features a large CDO and impressive
outflow in the northern semicircle. However, increasing shear has
begun to restrict outflow in the southwestern quadrant. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 105 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers (T5.0/6.0) from TAFB and SAB. Further
quick weakening is expected as the shear is forecast to increase to
about 35 kt in 24 hours and 50 kt by 48 hours. This should result in
Sandra's low-level circulation becoming decoupled as the mid- and
upper-level warm core is sheared off to the northeast. The new NHC
intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS model guidance,
and shows Sandra weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours. A 72-h
point is shown for continuity, but the low-level center of Sandra
should dissipate quickly after it moves inland over mainland Mexico
after 48 hours.
Sandra has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast
track, with an initial motion of 360/10. The track model guidance
has shifted to the left this cycle, and keeps Sandra on a northward
heading for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning north-
northeastward between a mid-level ridge over Mexico and a broad
deep-layer trough over western North America. The new NHC track has
been adjusted 30-45 n mi to the left given the initial motion and
the trend in the guidance, and now brings the center of a weakening
Sandra closer to the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
in 36-48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the new latest multi-
model consensus.
Given the updated forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch for the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.
Note that the remnant mid/upper-level moisture associated with
Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event
expected to occur over portions of the south-central United
States this weekend. For more information on this event, please see
products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS
Weather Forecast Offices.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 16.8N 110.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.1N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.8N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 24.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 27.0N 107.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
HURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015
...SANDRA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 110.1W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos
to Los Barriles.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
Interests along northern coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa
should monitor the progress of Sandra.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sandra was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 110.1 West. Sandra is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the north-
northeast is forecast on Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Sandra will move near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula Friday night and early Saturday, and then move
near the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a remnant low late
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sandra is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
Friday night and become a remnant low on Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
Saturday night and early Sunday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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