| Insane. Advisory data: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Pali Floater http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01C/01C_floater.html Models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2016&storm=01&display=googlemap&latestrun=1 "HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016 500 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016 IT IS RATHER SURREAL TO BE SAYING THIS IN JANUARY...BUT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH THE RAGGED EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS ALSO SHOWN THE EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE PARTICIPATING AGENCIES WERE UNANIMOUS AT 4.5 AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT GAVE 5.1. THUS...NOT ONLY IS PALI NOW A HURRICANE...BUT THE EARLIEST RECORDED HURRICANE IN A CALENDAR YEAR IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS HELD BY EKEKA IN JANUARY OF 1992. YET ANOTHER RECORD TO STACK ON THE EVER-GROWING PILE OF RECENT RECORDS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE ONGOING STRONG EL NINO. THE ESTIMATED MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS 105/5. A LARGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED BETWEEN WAKE ISLAND AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD MOTION ON THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONG RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TURNING THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS. A MORE TYPICAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE HWRF IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS OWING TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION WILL BEGIN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF IS EXHIBITING SOME UNUSUAL BEHAVIOR IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS IT TAKES THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CHALLENGING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KNOTS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IMPACTING PALI MUCH...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY DRIFT IT HAS EXPERIENCED TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C...AND THE WATER WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE EASING DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TOWARD THE SHEAR VECTOR. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH WEAK SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE PROXIMITY OF PALI TO THE EQUATOR MAY INHIBIT REINTENSIFICATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 8.1N 171.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 7.5N 171.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 6.4N 171.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 5.3N 171.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 4.5N 172.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 3.2N 174.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 2.8N 176.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 2.7N 178.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD" |