First Advisory and Track
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/5/2016, 11:04 am
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/150021.shtml?5day#contents





TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown





TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning.  Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone.  The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear.  NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt.  The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours.  After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 21.9N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  06/0000Z 24.0N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/1200Z 26.9N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  07/0000Z 29.6N  84.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  07/1200Z 32.6N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  08/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  09/1200Z 46.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
133
In this thread:
93L has become TD Three; TS warning will be issued for parts of Florida's west coast at 11am - Chris in Tampa, 6/5/2016, 10:33 am
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