| 3 Day Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205438.shtml?3day#contents TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 Corrected for breakpoint names ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DEPRESSION SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Georgia and northeast Florida from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the southeast United States coast later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of the depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida. STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the Florida East coast, within the Tropical Storm Watch area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday. TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The depression has changed little in organization since this morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds. Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |