| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/203439.shtml?5-daynl Floaters: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html It's not forecast to develop into a tropical storm, but it would only be 5mph more. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 The compact area of low pressure near the coast of southern Mexico has developed a well-defined center of circulation and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the first one of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity estimate of 30 kt is based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone with much of the associated deep convection located to the north of the low-level center. Since the wind shear is expected to remain high, no change in strength is predicted before the depression reaches the coast on Tuesday. The system is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a broad trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. A continued northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is expected, bringing the center near the coast in about 24 hours. However, since the vortex is strongly tilted, the mid-level center of the system will likely move inland as early as tonight. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which has already begun over portions of southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain. The Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.1N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 15.9N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 97.0W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the cyclone makes landfall. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 8 inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |