| 000 ABNT20 KNHC 012341 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains well organized, surface observations indicate that the system still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is likely to form later tonight or Tuesday morning. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Tuesday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica tonight, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ 000 AXNT20 KNHC 012343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... A gale warning is in effect for the area surrounding the low associated with strong tropical wave moving rapidly across the Caribbean basin. The tropical wave extends along 73W/74W with a 1007 mb low along the wave near 16.5N. The gale force winds are currently within 90 nm northeast semicircle and 45 nm southwest semicircle of the low. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the gale warnings. Wave and low are moving west near 20 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details on tropical development. Numerous showers with clusters of thunderstorms cover the area north of 14N across the Greater Antilles between 68W-78W, and from 20N to over the Turks and Caicos between 69W-74W. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... Meteo France has issued a gale warning for the area between the Canary Islands. Near gale to sometimes gale force is expected for the next 24 hours. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast that is listed under the following links: MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE... METAREA II...or on the website...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 19W/20W moving southwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N37W through a weak 1011 mb low near 12N39W to 10N40W. Wave and low are moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded within a high-amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection is noted. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W and continues along 11N22W 13N32W through the 1011 mb low to 11N42W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N52W to South America near 8N59W. Scattered strong convection is within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 24W-27W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 120 nm north and 180 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 27W to the coast of Africa and within 120 nm of a line from 9N39W 7N50W to 7N55W. Small clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 4N-10N between 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over south Alabama extending a ridge axis southwest to inland over Mexico near Tampico. An inverted upper trough is extends from south Mexico near the isthmus of Tehuantepec over the northwest corner of the Yucatan peninsula to the west tip of Cuba then into the west Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 23N92W to Mexico near 18N95W. This is generating clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 180 nm west of the surface trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms dot the east Gulf north of 23N east of 90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that have developed inland over the Yucatan peninsula and west Cuba are moving west into the east Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Channel. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a 1018 mb high near 28N94W continuing to over east Texas. The surface ridge will persist through Wednesday. The tropical wave/low in the Caribbean will move into the south Gulf of Mexico Thursday, possibly as a tropical cyclone. CARIBBEAN SEA... The prime focus again this evening is the strong tropical wave/low moving through the central Caribbean with gale force winds surrounding the low. See special features above for the activity in the central CAribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-16N between 78W-83W. The inverted upper trough that extends across the south Gulf of Mexico over west tip of Cuba is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N-21N between 82W-86W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along north Panama near 9N79W to across Costa Rica near 10N83W generating isolated showers and thunderstorms south of 10N west of 78W. The low associated tropical wave and the accompanying gale force winds will shift westward over the next couple of days before moving out of the Caribbean Thursday. There is a possibility that the low will develop into a tropical cyclone tonight or Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the island this evening. This activity will persist tonight into Tuesday with skies beginning to clear Tuesday night into Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features above for the activity over the Turks and Caicos. The inverted upper trough that extends across the west tip of Cuba covers the far west Atlantic generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 60/75 nm of a line from 29N76W across Grand Bahama Island to the coast of Cuba near 23N81W with isolated showers and thunderstorms within 60/75 nm of a line from 28N74W to over Cuba near 22N79W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1028 mb high over the Azores with a ridge axis extending through 32N40W 30N55W then west to a 1023 mb high near 30N69W then southwest across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist through the week. The north portion of the tropical wave over the central Caribbean will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Tuesday accompanied by strong winds and building seas that will shift west across the Bahamas late tonight into Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW |