| Track and watch/warning: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/155812.shtml?5day#contents TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the strong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this basis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated. This is the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season. The overall convective pattern was a little less organized this morning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection is forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not well established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of the global models show that the upper-level environment should become more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for some intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Earl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within very strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern United States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone on a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the next couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move over the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone should slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering currents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1600Z 16.3N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/ Guatemala border. The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the Yucatan peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |