| Track and advisory data from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Madeline Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14E/14E_floater.html Wide view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/cpac.html The 11pm EDT / 5pm HST Monday forecast has it passing near the south end of the Big Island in Hawaii, with 90mph winds. Discussion: "WTPA45 PHFO 300306 TCDCP5 HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016 500 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016 Madeline continues on a rapid intensification trend that began yesterday evening. Current satellite images depict a strong and well- organized major hurricane, with clouds having cleared the eye a short while ago. A ring of deep convection totally encircles the newly-cleared eye, with eyewall cloud top temperatures on the order of -70 degrees Celsius. The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 5.5/102 kt to 6.0/115 kt, and ADT from UW-CIMSS indicated a current intensity near 110 kt. Based on the improved satellite presentation from the previous advisory, and a blend of the fix data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 110 kt. Hurricane hunters from the 53rd Weather Recognizance Squadron are slated to begin flying investigative flights into Madeline Tuesday morning, which will give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and size. The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 290/09 kt, and little change to the overall track philosophy is presented by the latest model guidance, despite a somewhat dynamic steering pattern. Madeline is currently on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer trough lies far to the north, and the cyclone continues to track toward a weakness in the ridge. Madeline is expected to move on this general trajectory into early Tuesday, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid- level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone as a strengthening mid-level high replaces the trough. This is still expected to impart a turn toward the west and west-southwest as Madeline approaches the Big Island late Tuesday and Wednesday. In the later periods of the forecast, a west-northwest turn is expected as Madeline approaches the southwestern edge of the mid-level high. The distance between Madeline and east Pacific Hurricane Lester has been gradually decreasing, and forecast models indicate that the two cyclones may become sufficiently close at the end of the forecast period for some interaction. The updated track forecast is close to the previous and very close to the latest multi-model consensus TVCN. While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline Tuesday night and Wednesday, introducing increasing southwesterly shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend. In the mean time, relatively light shear and warm SSTs are expected to allow Madeline to maintain its current intensity, although there may be some fluctuations. The updated intensity forecast follows the trends presented by the previous forecast, and closely follows the intensity consensus IVCN as well as the LGEM guidance. Users are reminded to not focus too closely on the deterministic forecast track, and that hazards associated with hurricanes can extend well away from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 18.9N 146.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 19.2N 147.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 19.2N 149.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 18.8N 151.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 18.5N 153.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 18.2N 157.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 18.6N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 19.5N 167.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard" |