Invest 92L initiated at coast of Africa at 8pm EDT Monday, still 50% for 5 day chance
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/29/2016, 11:39 pm
Initiated about 11 miles inland.
Satellite:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al922016
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight,
located southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.
1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
moving off the coast of Senegal in western Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of
this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
2. A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the
south-central coast of Texas is producing disorganized shower
activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent
coastal areas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the
system drifts southwestward during the next day or so. For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Forecaster Stewart"
Area of potential formation:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
SSD Floater (only every 3 hours):
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/92L_floater.html
It's early for models of course, but here are some:
First models released by the NHC:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=92&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1
GFS and Euro:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?region=atl
Obviously we'll all be keeping an eye on this one as it treks across. |
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Invest 92L initiated at coast of Africa at 8pm EDT Monday, still 50% for 5 day chance - Chris in Tampa, 8/29/2016, 11:39 pm Post A Reply
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