| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/060014.shtml?5day#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew during the past few hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt from the SFMR instrument. In addition, the central pressure has fallen to 979 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. This also requires significant changes to the intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours. It is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the revised forecast could be conservative. There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous regular advisory. It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance over the southern semicircle. Based on this, no warnings are required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time. A warning might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center moves to the south of the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0600Z 14.1N 69.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 69.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM N OF CURACAO ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Curacao and Aruba * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 69.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next day or two. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew could become a major hurricane later today or tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Curacao and Aruba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning later today. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |