have had no posts from Jamaica since Aug 1st - also looks like they need donations
http://www.stormcarib.com/
Friday, September 30, 2016 08:37AM EDT - Cat 3 Matthew?
Good morning!
I was going to post last night but, frequently as it does, travel times do not cooperate. Hence this morning from MIA.
Defying the area of the Caribbean Sea north of South America and the ABC Islands that is known as the "graveyard" of intensification, hurricane Matthew pulled a rapid intensification surprise overnight by making a slow dive to the WSW avoiding a moderate to strong wind shear alley and taking advantage of untouched warm energy filled waters. Now a strong Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, Matthew is expected to continue on this course for about 36 hours and by days end reach major Cat 3 status which I expect by 2 pm and maybe even 11 am.
This forecasted dive to the WSW has actually caused a rare occurrence: tropical storm watches for the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao and an even rarer occurrence; the issuance of a tropical storm watch for the northernmost point of Columbia.
Between the high ridge to the NE and a cutoff low (spun off from the jet stream) to the NW, Matthew is expected to begin a turn sometime Saturday into Sunday towards the northwest and then north somewhere around 76-77W. As of late, models have been trending more west before the turn.
There is high uncertainty at this point where this turn will occur and even more so with the intensity forecast. Lets just say, Jamaica, Central and Eastern Cuba, Haiti, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, both coasts of Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Seaboard are all in play at this moment. That's trek wise. Even the Caymans can get in on the action depending on how far west Matthew goes before turning. Intensity wise I look for Matthew to be a Category 4 before all is said and done. Another period of RI or rapid intensification is not out of the question due to the energy rich and deep waters surrounding Jamaica and the Bahamas while land interaction will be a key player in both intensity and track down the road which is both good and bad. Good at knocking a system down. Bad at the heavy rain and flash flooding potential, especially for Haiti.
Be safe, be prepared and look out for your neighbors.
Dave
also looking for more local correspondents:
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.
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