#27 - 5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 - eyewall pounding Cuba
Posted by cypresstx on 10/4/2016, 5:07 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW

Hurricane Local Statements

Storm Surge Inundation

Prototype Storm Surge Warning

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW
ALREADY POUNDING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Golden Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 74.3 West.  Matthew is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). On this track the eye of
Matthew will move over the extreme portion of eastern Cuba in the
next few hours.  A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by
Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is
expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern
Bahamas Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of Haiti.
Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba, and will
begin in the southeastern Bahamas this evening, the central Bahamas
on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading
across the remainder of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas tonight, and should reach the central and northwestern
Bahamas on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions
the Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions
will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also
possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is the potential for
life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours along
the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard
county line.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic.  For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the
Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days.  Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier
today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the
cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby
high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and
some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's
circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once
Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the
hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some
weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the
wind shear.

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from
Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees
at about 8 kt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow
around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global
models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the
hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the
waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.

2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance.  For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore.  It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina  later this week or this weekend, even
if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north.  At a
minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.8N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 21.1N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 22.5N  75.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 25.9N  78.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  80.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila




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#27 - 5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 - eyewall pounding Cuba - cypresstx, 10/4/2016, 5:07 pm
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