90L: 7pm EST Sunday (11/20): 80% in 48 hours, 90% within 5 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/20/2016, 8:31 pm
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low
pressure area over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea have
become a little better organized during the past couple of hours.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Monday while
the low remains nearly stationary.  For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown"

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



Outlook from earlier in the day after recon mission:



"SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on the
low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

1. Updated:  Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined low-level
circulation.  However, satellite images indicate that the system
currently lacks sufficient organized thunderstorm activity to be
designated as a tropical cyclone.  An increase in thunderstorm
activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression at
any time within the next day or two while the system moves very
slowly.  For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch"



Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html
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Something interesting on the Five-Day Graphical TWO - Beachlover, 11/13/2016, 2:17 am
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