GFS around Lesser Antilles
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2017, 5:13 pm
| "Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials." "The biggest change since the last forecast is that the GFS and its ensemble has trended southwestward, toward the unwavering ECMWF model on the track forecast." 6Z GFS:  12Z GFS (closer to Lesser Antilles):  From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl 6Z GFS Ensemble:  12Z GFS Ensemble (closer to Lesser Antilles):  From: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/ CIMSS ADT that is mentioned in discussion for those interested: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/adt.html Some NOAA recon Sunday with P-3. G-IV Monday to sample high altitude environment around the storm and ahead of it. (great data for the models then) Air Force recon also starts Monday. "NOUS42 KNHC 011427 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EDT FRI 01 SEPTEMBER 2017 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017 TCPOD NUMBER.....17-092 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA EVERY 12 HOURS STARTING AT 03/19Z. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z NEAR 16.4N 52.5W. B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS. 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE." From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |
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In this thread:
Irma at 5pm AST on Friday: 120mph - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2017, 4:53 pm
- Latest Model Runs from the South Florida Water Management District - tvsteve, 9/1/2017, 9:15 pm
- GFS trend image from Levi Cowan of the setup over the US - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2017, 8:32 pm
- NHC's Key Messages for Hurricane Irma - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2017, 7:52 pm
- Re: Irma at 5pm AST on Friday: 120mph - 327hanna, 9/1/2017, 5:12 pm
- Windfield Forecast - tvsteve, 9/1/2017, 5:59 pm
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