Re: Typhoon Sanvu in the Pacific
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/2/2017, 2:50 am
You can click "Regions" in bottom left corner, though some products are not available for some regions. Here is the 500mb one for the entire North Atlantic:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp

The wind at 200mb level is available for this region:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=uv200
(the other region I posted initially had 250mb level available)

There are lots of interesting things in those menus at the bottom under the image. I don't know how to interpret some of the options.






One thing I saw elsewhere tonight was something I had never seen before.

GFS-GEFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs

That's the GFS ensemble members, with the little red number being each low.

I'm not sure what the numbers are. My guess, the pressures without the leading digit(s). So for blue highs you would almost always add a 10 to the front. If "20" that probably means the pressure is 1020mb. Same for lows, only sometimes it might mean adding a "10" or a "9". I'm not sure though.

Canadian ensemble is here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs
Abbreviations can be confusing.
CMC - Canadian Meteorological Center
GEM - Global Environmental Multiscale model
GEPS - Canadian Global Ensemble Prediction System



Getting  back to GFS ensemble, let's compare some images. 0Z GEFS ensemble is not yet on this site as of posting this:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/
TRACK > PROBABILISTIC > GEFS (US) > (Then select a blue square under the run you want)

So I will use the 18Z Friday GFS.

The images below are from a prior run.

Saved images, first from that Albany site:



AEMN is GFS Ensemble Mean. That's out 240 hours and I assume all the ensemble members shown are.

Here's Tropical Tidbits for 18Z Friday, 240 hours out:



They do seem to match, with "40" between Bermuda and US matching with the end of the line in the other image. Numbers are hard to read. A closer regional view is available:



Link to that view for the latest run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&fh=240
Previous runs in drop down menu.

Since the red numbers seem to rise after land, I assume they are pressures. But at the very least, those model images are nice to see individual ensembles. Both sites.
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Irma at 11pm AST on Friday: 115mph; W at 14mph - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2017, 10:56 pm
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