GFS, Wow... A good time to visit friends out of State?
Posted by
Target on 9/4/2017, 2:18 am
How accurate are all the models 7 days out?
Does the GFS model really forecast a 884mb (millibar) mean surface level pressure in central Florida 172 hours after 12 AM Monday September 4th 2017?
It's just one model, but the GFS model has typically not overestimated storms as often as the HWRF and GFDL models have.
So when I see such a low pressure after a Florida landfall it makes me want to ask everyone in Florida if they really want to risk riding out a storm that could be worse than Andrew. Andrew was 926 mb at Landfall. What are the odds that Irma will be worse than Andrew?
What would the maximum storm surge height along the Florida coastline be if this run of the GFS model turns out to be anything close to accurate?
Most of the models seem to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in Florida within about one week. Am I reading something wrong here? Is this hype, or am I making a conservative estimate? I don't know.
7 days is a long way out, but many of the models seem to be saying the same thing. I hope they're wrong. Maybe Irma will pivot during an Eyewall Replacement Cycle and head out to sea.
On the other hand, how hard would it be to visit friends in another State next week?

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In this thread:
5pm AST Sun: 115mph; W (260 degrees) at 14mph; Hurricane watches issued for parts of Leewards -
Chris in Tampa,
9/3/2017, 5:05 pm- Re: 5pm AST Sun: 115mph; W (260 degrees) at 14mph; Hurricane watches issued for parts of Leewards - stevemc12, 9/4/2017, 3:07 am
- Re: 5pm AST Sun: 115mph; W (260 degrees) at 14mph; Hurricane watches issued for parts of Leewards - stevemc12, 9/4/2017, 2:51 am
- 0z GFS moves CAT 5 hurricane into Florida - Big Scott 76, 9/4/2017, 12:53 am
- A bit of a Model Shift tonight - beachman80, 9/3/2017, 10:27 pm
- Radar loop of NOAA hurricane hunters' first mission - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 9:47 pm
- GFS ensemble models - Big Scott 76, 9/3/2017, 8:49 pm
- Re: 5pm AST Sun: 115mph; W (260 degrees) at 14mph; Hurricane watches issued for parts of Leewards - Big Scott 76, 9/3/2017, 8:43 pm
- 8:03pm EDT Vortex: Closed 25 nautical mile wide eye - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 8:41 pm
- Weather Prediction Center Medium Range Forecast - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 8:30 pm
- 8pm AST Sunday: "Irma expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands by late Tuesday" - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 8:17 pm
- First Vortex Message: 961mb; 11 knots of surface wind - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 5:51 pm
- Radar image from center of Irma at 5:16:49pm EDT Sunday - Chris in Tampa, 9/3/2017, 5:28 pm
- Re: 5pm AST Sun: 115mph; W (260 degrees) at 14mph; Hurricane watches issued for parts of Leewards - Shalista, 9/3/2017, 5:09 pm
- Re: 5pm AST Sun: 115mph; W (260 degrees) at 14mph; Hurricane watches issued for parts of Leewards - AquaRN, 9/3/2017, 5:08 pm
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