18Z GFS streaming in
Posted by Gambit7 on 9/5/2017, 5:58 pm
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2017090518&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0


Okay, now the model is swinging pretty seriously.  NHC is relying more on the Euro, but realize that only runs every 12hrs and the recon on this storm has been coming in fairly quickly.  For this reason, I consider the Euro to lag pretty badly at times.  The Euro also does not take current movement into account.

GFS seems to continue on with the current WNW movement (which is correct), whereas the Euro has a more westerly movement currently (incorrect).  I dunno.  Both will have the high building back in, but the GFS will have it doing so at higher latitudes and later on in the forecast.  The Euro has the timing lower and sooner (which is why it hits Cuba)/

I suspect NHC will adjust their track back to the right at the 11pm due to this latest GFS run along with various other ensembles that average them all; which also show a more peninsula or miami landfall.  
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18Z GFS streaming in - Gambit7, 9/5/2017, 5:58 pm
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