| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite: Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13L/13L_floater.html Gulf: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html Other areas of Atlantic: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR KATIA IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 94.5W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco and from south of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Rojo to Laguna Verde A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco * South of Laguna Verde to Puerto Veracruz. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 94.5 West. Katia is stationary and little overall motion is anticipated through late today, but then the hurricane is forecast to turn southwestward and approach the coast within the watch area late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Katia is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where Katia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions expected within the tropical warning areas by midday Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Katia are expected to affect portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 Katia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours with a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in the northeastern quadrant. Satellite estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current intensity. Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with decreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours. Thus strengthening is expected as long as the center remains offshore. It is still puzzling why most of the guidance don't intensify this much, but since the global models continue to show significant deepening, the official forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance. The hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to build over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a faster pace. Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track, although the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward motion. The only significant change from the previous advisory is to speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast. Given the latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 21.5N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.5N 94.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 95.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.8N 95.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |