11pm Maria Discussion
Posted by CX on 9/16/2017, 11:13 pm
| Maria has become a little better organized this evening, with satellite imagery showing the formation of a small convective area near the center that may reflect the formation of an inner wind core. However, this has not yet resulted in intensification, as various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain about 45 kt. The longer-term initial motion is 280/14, while recent satellite imagery suggests the system may be turning a little more to the right. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken through the forecast period, which would allow Maria to move generally west-northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next five days. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is nudged only slightly to the left of the previous track based on the initial location. The forecast continues to take the core of Maria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 96 hr, and near eastern Hispaniola at about 120 h. Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture, light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the next 4 days. This should result in steady to rapid intensification. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast. 11pm track is over Dominica as a hurricane. Approaching PR as a major - nearly Cat 4.  With that said, the bolded language from the discussion is ominous. Not what you want to hear when the intensity is already nearly cat 4. |
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