Re: Maria at 11pm EDT Sunday: 90mph
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/25/2017, 12:20 am
| According to the IKE calculator here: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php The Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) is about 4.6 for Maria at 11pm EDT. (out of a scale of 6) "The SDP box is the Surge Destructive Potential Rating based on a scale of zero to 6. SDP is interpreted similar to the Saffir SImpson scale in that the most destructive storms are rated above 5 and the least destructive storms < 1." Using the data from the Forecast Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/ "ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT." Rmax(nm) I got from best track data: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=15&display=best_track "This calculator will let you estimate the IKE and Surge Destructive Potential based on estimates of the outermost extent of tropical storm (TS), 50 kt, and Hurricane Force (H) winds in each storm quadrant. The results will give you ball park estimates if you use the operational wind radii. These estimates are based on some very coarse wind field assumptions. An improved estimate would come from a gridded wind analysis or model input data using the methods described in Powell and Reinhold 2007." It's not as good as what you used to be able to have access to, but it's something. It shows how powerful the water is in this storm, despite the maximum winds coming down.  |
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Maria at 11pm EDT Sunday: 90mph - Chris in Tampa, 9/24/2017, 11:44 pm
- 11pm EDT Sunday NHC Discussion - Chris in Tampa, 9/24/2017, 11:45 pm
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