| 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 730 PM CDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 85.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 730 PM CDT (0030 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected overnight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected before Albert reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20-25 inches. The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia... 4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas... 2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area tonight and continue through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to Navarre Florida... 2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across the central and northern Florida peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |