| part of it Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Honolulu HI 944 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Catastrophic flooding continues on the Big Island this evening as dangerous Hurricane Lane creeps northward a couple of hundred miles south of Honolulu. This threat along with damaging winds is expected to expand westward over the smaller islands later tonight through Saturday as Lane approaches and moves into the area. This will be a long-duration event with the potential for heavy rainfall continuing Sunday into early next week as Lane begins to track westward and away from the state. Additionally, coastal impacts associated with large surf and water levels rising due to surge could lead to inundation and overwash onto low-level coastal areas through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... The new intermediate advisory (8 pm HST) from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) has Hurricane Lane slowly moving northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands at 6 mph, located about 230 miles south of Honolulu (230 miles SW of Kailua-Kona). Maximum sustained winds associated with Lane remain at 120 mph near the center, which is a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Lane is forecast to continue on this track into Friday as it approaches and moves near the islands. Lane is then forecast to gradually make a turn toward the west late Friday and Friday night, passing south of Oahu and Kauai Saturday and Saturday night. Interests are reminded not to only focus on the exact track of Lane as impacts are and will occur far away from its center. Catastrophic flooding continues this evening over the Big Island with peak totals near or around the 25" mark just south of Hilo (Waiakea Exp. Station). This threat along with damaging winds is expected to expand westward over the smaller islands later tonight through Saturday as Lane approaches and moves into the area. Localized rainfall totals may reach or exceed 40" as this event continues through the weekend as Lane slowly tracks away from the state. Out at the beaches and along low-lying coastal areas, life-threatening surf combined with storm surge will translate to inundation and/or overwash. The greatest potential for these coastal threats will occur along south and southeast facing shores. For the extended period (next week), deep tropical moisture axis is forecast to hold over the western end of the state through the first half of the week as Lane turns northward well west of Kauai. This will keep the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding in place, mainly for Kauai and Oahu. Confidence remains low through the second half of the week due to large model differences. The ECMWF depicts another tropical cyclone developing and moving into the central Pacific while the GFS only shows a weak and broad trough or low. For additional details with regard to impacts for each island associated with Lane, refer to the latest local statements issued with each advisory package (next issuance 11 pm - midnight; TCV/HLS). |