| crawling along... http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/latest_gis.php?stormid=EP142018 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 Location: 18.2N 158.0W Max sustained: 120 MPH Moving: N at 6 MPH Min pressure: 956 MB Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018 Hurricane Lane is beginning to show some signs of slow weakening due to wind shear of over 20 knots from the southwest according to the SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show the center is becoming elongated in a north to south direction. The latest satellite intensity estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.5/102 knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.7/107 knots. The current intensity is held at 105 kt based on these estimates. The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north. This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian Islands. Our intensity forecast shows some weakening, but continues to trend on the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to how organized Lane's core has been in recent days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high values during the next 24 to 36 hours, so this will likely help maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such high shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from the center. 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings. 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands. 4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 18.2N 158.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 19.0N 158.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 19.9N 158.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 20.3N 160.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 24.6N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston |