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Posted by cypresstx on 8/24/2018, 11:30 am
kinda looks like a beating heart http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 Location: 18.7N 158.0W Max sustained: 110 MPH Moving: N at 5 MPH Min pressure: 962 MB Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 40... Corrected NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 Hurricane Lane continues to signs of slow weakening due to wind shear of 20 to 30 knots from the southwest according to the latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show the center is becoming disrupted. The latest satellite intensity estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.0/90 knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend of these estimates, the current intensity has been lowered to 95 knots. Lane began to turn northward Thursday evening, and the current motion is 360/4 knots. Lane continues to be steered toward the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge builds south of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast through the next 36 hours. This more closely follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the central Hawaiian Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the islands, the cyclone is forecast to come increasingly under the influence of the low-level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north. This would produce considerably worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian Islands. Our intensity forecast shows some additional weakening, but continues to trend on the high side of most of the intensity guidance through 72 hours due to the resilience Lane has shown during the past few days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high values during the next 24 hours or so. This will likely help maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such strong shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from the center. 2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands as a hurricane later today or tonight, and is expected to bring damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings. 3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is expected to lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands. 4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 18.7N 158.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 19.4N 157.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 20.4N 159.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 20.2N 160.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.1N 163.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 25.5N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston  |
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- Re: 40 - tvsteve, 8/24/2018, 2:45 pm
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