Re: Hurricane Florence - 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9
Posted by Shalista on 9/9/2018, 4:02 pm
Ok so I had said by Sunday I was going to post my thoughts about Florence....I've been looking over some things...steering currents and wind shear. Still too early to say where Florence will go, but I'm taking a gamble and my thinking is both Carolina's meaning on the border North/South, which means Myrtle Bch. Here's why......



This is the current Sheer map. Right now Florence is barely a Hurricane 75 mph winds. She is in between two areas of shear. Look at the Carolina's, no shear there to be seen. Where do you think she will go? Someplace that will make her thrive.



You can see this in the above image of the outflow of Florence the way that both sides fan out. However, once she clears of the shear, will she strengthen...Oh yeah, she will.

Now let's take a look at steering currents.



This is the steering current for the 400-850mb. I am using this based on the current Mb that Florence is registered at. She is stalling. She is planning her next move like someone playing chess. She is waiting on what the High is going to do before she makes her move. If you notice, she is still moving along at a slow pace at 6 mph. Now, why is that? she's churning in the little eady she is in waiting and watching. Honestly, until she gets into those warmer waters and intensifies, I'm going to stick with the 3-day forecast as 4-5 days out it has been changing. We shall see by Tues and I'll post my thoughts again then.
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Hurricane Florence - 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 - cypresstx, 9/9/2018, 11:03 am
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