Hiding Behind Models
Posted by
Target on 9/11/2018, 12:35 am
from the Katrina wiki page:
'Katrina made its second landfall at 1110 UTC on August 29, as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h), near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana. At landfall, hurricane-force winds extended outward 120 miles (190 km) from the center and the storm's central pressure was 920 mbar (27 inHg).'
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina
I guess Florence would have to be around 919mb at landfall to be the third strongest hurricane to make landfall in US history.
This forum used to be full of opinions.
I worry that the US is losing a lot of good forecasters that were employed by the NHC in the 1960's and the 1970's due to old age.
We don't fund them like we used to in America.
Still, I have to admit that the models have gotten so good over the last decade that they deter me from even trying to beat them.
So most of the time I just let the models do the forecasting.
The models offer the bearer of bad news some protection from criticism.
It's a little safer that way... |
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