Re: from Jim's video instruction
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/12/2018, 10:44 am
I like setting these two options:
Heat Map: Average Error
Show number of cases (only for "Average" type): Yes

With those two options:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=06&display=model_error&type=table&run=latest&error_type=average&interval=24&hour=120&position_unit=nm&intensity_unit=kts&show_cases=1&heat_map=1&hide_zero_hour=&model_toggle_option=&show_bearing=&trend=&show_trend_text=&zero_hour_within=10&intensity_option=&hide_model_names=&extra_info=2&sorting_error_method=&sorting_error_hour=120&sorting_error_option=

And leave this set to Yes:
Hide intensity err. if 0hr off by more than intensity of [10]? Yes

Looking at intensity error is really tricky and best avoided. Most models released by the NHC won't have an accurate intensity forecast. You can look at the intensity forecast on this page:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=06&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

And you can see, when you add all the models in the chart (some are hidden by default), that many models don't start at or very near the NHC forecast wind speed, especially notable in strong storms. Those models shouldn't be compared to others that do try to forecast the wind speed. It might be a matter of model resolution, I'm not sure. (perhaps the models are not able to resolve the amount of detail to get the highest wind speed)

But as for position error, I like having the heat map visually and I also like to know the number of cases. If a model is very good and colored green, it's nice to know it didn't get lucky one time and that was the only forecast available from it.

You can also sort the error to have the best models, at however many days, listed first:

Sort [average err] based on err. hr: [120 (5 Day)]? [Yes]

With that option turned on as well:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=06&display=model_error&type=table&run=latest&error_type=average&interval=24&hour=120&position_unit=nm&intensity_unit=kts&show_cases=1&heat_map=1&hide_zero_hour=&model_toggle_option=&show_bearing=&trend=&show_trend_text=&zero_hour_within=10&intensity_option=&hide_model_names=&extra_info=2&sorting_error_method=&sorting_error_hour=120&sorting_error_option=1

Not surprisingly, some of the consensus models are on top for position error.

And if you want extra info about what the data means, set "Enable Extra Info Popup?" to "Yes" and then you can hover your mouse over a cell in the table to get more information about what is being shown. With that option on:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2018&storm=06&display=model_error&type=table&run=latest&error_type=average&interval=24&hour=120&position_unit=nm&intensity_unit=kts&show_cases=1&heat_map=1&hide_zero_hour=&model_toggle_option=&show_bearing=&trend=&show_trend_text=&zero_hour_within=10&intensity_option=&hide_model_names=&extra_info=1&sorting_error_method=&sorting_error_hour=120&sorting_error_option=1
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Crazy Florence....... - AquaRN, 9/12/2018, 6:26 am
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