WPC Met Watch for Eastern NC
Posted by cypresstx on 9/14/2018, 12:01 am
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0832&yr=2018  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0832 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1137 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 Areas affected...eastern NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 140336Z - 140900Z Summary...3-5 inches of rain is expected over the central to southern NC Coastal Plain by 09Z. Repeating rounds of 1-2 in/hr rain rates (occasionally higher) and flash flooding are likely. Discussion...At 03Z, Hurricane Florence was located about 65 miles east of Wilmington, NC, and continued to move slowly west at 5 mph. Observed rainfall rates within Florence's spiral bands that were impacting coastal locations between Cape Lookout and Cape Fear have been roughly 1-2 in/hr since 00Z, which is near or a bit below KTLX dual-pol estimates. GOES 16 10.3 micron infrared imagery has been relatively steady state over the past 2-3 hours with periodic bursts of colder cloud tops, followed by warming/fading. One such cold burst had been observed just south of the Crystal Coast between 0245z and 0315Z, tied to the northern eyewall of Florence. Precipitable water values continue to rise as the center of Florence nears the coast with the 00Z RAOB from MHX showing 2.64 inches (0.31 inches higher than 18Z) and a wet bulb zero height of 16.3 kft which certainly correlates to ongoing warm rain processes. As Florence continues a slow westward movement, spiral bands will continue to enhance and weaken as they slowly translate inland across eastern portions of NC, capable of 1-2+ in/hr rain rates atop increasing soil moisture. Farther north, the potential exists for east to west training within spiral bands on the north side of Florence from near Cape Hatteras to just east of I-95. The 03Z NHC advisory for Florence will take the northwestern edges of the eyewall toward North Topsail and Topsail beach by 09Z including rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr. The slow movement of Florence and the heavy tropical rainfall will continue the flash flooding threat through 09Z. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC... |
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