5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 - Tropical Storm Florence
Posted by cypresstx on 9/14/2018, 4:57 pm
| https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Florence https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093211.shtml?gm_track#contents https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/view.html?name=Florence https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region_forecast.php?rfc=serfc BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina, including Albemarle Sound. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at several locations across southeastern North Carolina. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart   Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Florence's satellite appearance continues to be quite impressive with well-established outflow and a nearly symmetrical cloud pattern. In radar imagery, however, the inner-core convection has continued to weaken and the echoes are now more stratiform in nature, while outer banding remains rather vigorous, especially south of Cape Lookout and Morehead City, North Carolina. An eye is no longer evident, and the pressure has continued to rise to a now estimated to be 972 mb based on nearby surface observations. Air Force Reserve aircraft data, NOAA Doppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington, and nearby surface observations indicate that Florence's intensity has decreased to 60 kt, tropical storm status. Florence has turned westward and the motion estimate is now 270/03 kt. The new 1200Z global and regional model guidance is in good agreement on Florence moving slowly in a general westward direction for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northward motion on day 3 as the system moves around the western periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and frontal system, and emerge off the northeast U.S. coast as an extratropical low. The new official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory, and is lies near the northern and eastern edge of model guidance envelope, is closer to the TVCA/TVCN consensus models. Florence is expected to only slowly weaken overnight due to its proximity to the warm Atlantic where convective bands are expected to continue to develop and propagate inland in the eastern and southern portion of the circulation, which will act to bring down some of the stronger winds aloft. It is worth noting that the last reconnaissance pass indicated 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt just east of Charleston, South Carolina, so it won't take much convection to bring down some of those stronger winds to the surface as gusts. More rapid weakening is forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across the higher terrain of central and northwestern South Carolina. The official intensity forecast follows the weakening trend of the previous advisory, and is similar to an average of the GFS- and ECMWF-based Decay SHIPS models. Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside tonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue to be extremely heavy rainfall. More than 16 inches of rain has already fallen in many areas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and freshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels. Dangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast coast of South Carolina coast tonight. 2: Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, mudslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina. 4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 34.0N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 33.9N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 33.9N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 34.4N 81.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 35.5N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 38.5N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 41.5N 76.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/1800Z 44.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN |
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