Help Educating Me with El Nino
Posted by
MarkoNY on 9/17/2018, 11:42 am
After all these years being a hurricane enthusiast with no education in meteorology spending most of my time just staring at satellite loops I decided to actually read and study the math and science of weather. So I was hoping one of the pros could help me answer my first question that Im stuck on finding the answer to
1
If El Nino reaches its peak earlier than expected One given year and has been much stronger than forecasted earlier, what effect does that have on forecasting models.
I believe trade winds are different with every new El Nino therefore cant be predicted or compared to previous El Ninos , so wouldnt most of these models, for example, the graphical that shows likely areas of development at so and so time of hurricane year, wouldnt that be a complete reference waste since factoring in the new El Nio data wasnt done and only may look at the last 100 year history of development zones.
2
Predicted path models, like the GFS, do they constantly adjust and change their equations to match real time El Nino data or is that done infrequently? Not sure whether winds directly associated with El Nino move at a consistent or inconsistent pattern based upon peak intensity or maybe the time frame of expected peak was earlier or later than forecasted.
I may be totally off on my understandings of El Nino and these models so a response like go back to the basics and start there is totally fine with me |
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Help Educating Me with El Nino - MarkoNY, 9/17/2018, 11:42 am Post A Reply
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