| A Hurricane Warning was also issued for part of Cuba. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents Highlight from 4am CDT Monday discussion: "This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall." They also mention "the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours." Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?sat=G16&stormid=AL142018 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL142018 Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday night... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt. This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours. With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States. Michael should then become an extratropical low by day 5. The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States, exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a fairly confident track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today. 2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |