| NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Tides: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ Radar: https://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EVX&type=N0R&num=10&delay=50&showlabels=1&showstorms=1&lightning=1 Long radar loops from Brian McNoldy: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/ Radar South Florida Water Management District: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions Satellite: Mesoscale IR floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO_band.php?sat=G16&lat=28N&lon=86W&band=13&length=30 From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO.php?sat=G16&lat=28N&lon=86W More floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?sat=G16&stormid=AL142018 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL142018 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at least day 4. Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S. East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects those areas. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible. 2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and Panama City. 3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland later today and this evening. 4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/ Alabama border has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |