11pm AST Thurs. on Leslie: 90mph; First known TS warning issued for Portuguese island of Madeira
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/11/2018, 11:24 pm
| Yes, that Leslie. Eventually it lasted long enough to threaten something. This is the first known tropical storm warning for that island. There are no known tropical storms, on record, to have ever passed within 100 miles. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Geography lesson: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madeira Past track on Leslie:  Satellite floater on this page, along with wider Atlantic imagery. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_index.php Some East Atlantic imagery: 15 min: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/ Hourly: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/ After this, who knows what might happen when it bends around, again. Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Satellite images indicate that Leslie has continued to strengthen. A small eye has occasionally been apparent, although it has recently become obscured by clouds. ASCAT data showed peak winds of 75 kt earlier, and given the low bias of that instrument at those wind speeds, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt. Leslie should begin to weaken in about 24 hours as the hurricane encounters cool waters and a higher-shear environment. Intensity guidance is tightly clustered around the previous NHC prediction, and little change is made in the new advisory. By 72 hours, a combination of very dry air aloft, waters near 23.5C, and high shear should cause Leslie to lose convection and transition into a post-tropical cyclone. Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/23 kt. The hurricane should move rapidly in that general direction for the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough, then bend eastward and southward as the main steering mechanism switches to the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. There is still a large guidance spread, over 700 miles at day 3, but the main change to report is that more of the models are continuing the east-northeastward track longer, possibly due to Leslie becoming a stronger system. The official forecast is shifted to the east, but is still well to the southwest of the model consensus, ironically similar to last night's forecast. Leslie is a fairly large tropical cyclone and the forecast wind radii encompass Madeira Island within 36 hours. Consequently, a tropical storm warning has been issued for that island. It is the first known tropical storm warning for that place, and there are no known tropical storms in the historical record anywhere within 100 miles of that island, with the closest being Vince of 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 30.9N 33.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 32.1N 29.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 33.3N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 34.0N 18.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 33.5N 15.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 15.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 16/0000Z 29.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z 28.0N 24.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MADEIRA ISLAND DUE TO LESLIE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 33.9W ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM WSW OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Portugal has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Madeira Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 33.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island beginning early Saturday. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could lead to flash flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
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In this thread:
- A very rare track - Chris in Tampa, 10/11/2018, 11:47 pm
- All Atlantic best track data - Chris in Tampa, 10/12/2018, 12:22 am
- Re: All Atlantic best track data - Beachlover, 10/12/2018, 2:40 am
- All Atlantic best track data - Chris in Tampa, 10/12/2018, 12:22 am
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