| Flash flooding still remains a threat in some areas, from rain still falling and from rain that has already fallen in other areas. NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Radar: https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/ct/hartford/animated Satellite floaters: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL142018 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?sat=G16&stormid=AL142018 Given the devastation the storm caused, this shouldn't be a name we see again. Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near the end of the cyclone's life. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United States can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water, flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. 2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 73.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today and tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today. WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard through this afternoon. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Elsewhere, flooding and flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United States can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. $$ Forecaster Beven |