| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Today's track is much different from yesterday. The forecast is now straight into Portugal. It could make landfall with sustained hurricane force winds in Portugal, but it's forecast to be post-tropical. Tropical cyclone watches and warnings will not be issued and will be handled with local watches and warnings after consultation with those countries: From 5pm Friday discussion: "After coordination with the meteorological services of Portugal and Spain, they have decided to provide information on the wind hazard with local products." Satellite floaters: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL132018 May not be on GOES-East for much longer: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_index.php Some East Atlantic imagery: 15 min: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/ Hourly: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/ Radar, for later: Portugal: https://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/obs.radar/ Spain: http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/radar "Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 66A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 800 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...LESLIE PASSING BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLAND... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 22.4W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Madeira Island Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 22.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A fast motion toward the east-northeast is expected to continue through Saturday, followed by a slower east-northeastward motion Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island tonight and early Saturday, approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday, and move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula, and the post- tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island early Saturday. Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to portions of Portugal late Saturday, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of western Spain late Saturday and Saturday night. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 4 inches (100 mm) across Portugal and portions of Spain through Sunday night. This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through Saturday and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg" This is earlier 5pm AST discussion... "Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Leslie remains a well organized tropical cyclone, with a fairly symmetric central dense overcast, and hints of an eye in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. A 1738 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass shows that there is some northeast to southwest tilt, due to an increase in westerly shear. Some slight weakening is foreast tonight while Leslie moves over cool SSTs of 23 to 24 degrees Celsius and into an area of increasing westerly shear. However, Leslie is forecast to transition into a powerful hurricane- force post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours as it interacts with an approaching trough. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula shortly thereafter, and it should weaken due to land interaction after that time. The system is forecast to dissipate inland by Monday. Leslie continues to race across the far eastern Atlantic, with an initial motion estimate of 070/30 kt. The global models are now unanimous in taking Leslie quickly east-northeastward on the south side of a strong longwave trough over the northeast Atlantic. The official track foreast as been adjusted northward and is significantly faster than before, and brings the center of Leslie over the coast of the Iberian Peninsula by 0000 UTC Sunday. The system is likely to dissipate over the high terrain of Spain within a couple of days, but a 48-h forecast point is shown for continuity. Now that the track guidance is in much better agreement, confidence in the NHC track forecast has increased. After coordination with the meteorological services of Portugal and Spain, they have decided to provide information on the wind hazard with local products. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds on Saturday to portions of Portugal as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds are also likely to affect portions of western Spain. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown" |