60% in 5 days as of 8pm EDT Sunday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/7/2019, 8:00 pm
"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few
days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders
near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky"



Graphical outlook:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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