| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast west of Intracoastal City to Cameron. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. An oil rig east of the Mouth of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph and a wind gust of 52 mph at an elevation of 525 feet. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Barry has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a convective band forming closer to the center in the southern semicircle and the central pressure falling to near 1003 mb. However, the strongest winds are still 70 nm or more from the center, and there are several cloud swirls rotating around the mean center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, but it is possible this is a little conservative. The initial motion is 275/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However, there remains a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move generally northward across southeastern Louisiana, while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean take the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes. There was a slight westward shift in the guidance envelope since the last advisory, which resulted in the consensus models being close to the previous NHC forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and it calls for the center of Barry to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast between 36-48 h. After 72 h, the cyclone should recurve northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it moves through the Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become a remnant low by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 27.9N 89.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 28.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 29.0N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 30.0N 91.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |